It’s a slow day in the markets, so I’ve been scrolling through some social media. I keep reading things like “Only 3.2% of retirees have $1 million in retirement accounts," per Investopedia.
Or “Americans will need more than $1.1 million in additional savings to retire comfortably in 20 years," per MarketWatch.
But we just lived through one of the greatest bull markets in history. Everything has gone up in value, from houses to stocks to gold.
If you were a prime millennial hipster in 2010, you should have done great. Imagine being 25 with the pointy beard, an IPA, and a vinyl record collection – just starting out. If you got a job and started putting money into a 401(k) fund like the S&P 500, you’d have close to a million dollars. Well, sort of…
You see, over the last 15 years, from July 3, 2010, to July 3, 2025, the S&P 500 has shown a total return of about 646%, including reinvested dividends.
Monthly Investment Needed
With a 50% company match, if you invest $1,045.50 monthly, the total contribution (including the match) would be $1,568.25 monthly. Over 15 years, with S&P 500 returns, this would likely grow to around $1 million.
That’s a little over $500 a paycheck, which is certainly doable.
Annual Income Required
A single person investing 6% of their income would have an annual contribution of $12,546 (1,045.50 × 12). For this to be 6% of your income, you’d need to earn approximately $209,100 per year.
This calculation accounts for the growth based on historical S&P 500 total returns, including dividends, and assumes consistent monthly contributions.
Ok, so that’s a lot of money – it's well above average. However, these hypothetical hipsters would only be 40 years old now. If they were 50, one would assume they had some money after surviving the Great Recession and would have doubled it twice in the past 15 years.
A 10% annual return doubles your money every seven years.
But let's look at it another way. Let's see what the average person with the average house who invested in a like manner, starting in 2010, would have today. And because I’m not doing the math, I asked Grok.
Mediocre Man
Grok says that “an average wage earner investing 6% of their salary with a 50% match over the last 15 years would likely have around $478,230 in investments today, based on S&P 500 returns.
It seems likely that buying the average house in 2010 for about $272,900 would now be worth around $442,000, assuming typical appreciation rates.
The evidence leans toward their total net worth today being approximately $920,230, combining investments and home equity, though this depends on market performance and housing trends.”
It is very plausible that the average wage earner could have close to a million dollars by using the standard investment thesis that everyone talks about.
The good news is that Americans in general are kicking butts on the Europeans. Research suggests the average US net worth in stocks is around $320,000 per household, while for Europeans, it’s approximately $60,000.
That’s what happens when you depend on the government for everything. There is no reward without risk.
Have a great three-day!
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
